US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 2, 2026, 8:10 PM UTC
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Tatjana Maria — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jelena Ostapenko goes up against Tatjana Maria in the US Open first round. Jelena Ostapenko limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Tatjana Maria is 7-3 across recent matches.
Jelena Ostapenko is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Ostapenko around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ostapenko is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-146(59.3% Ostapenko)
Market-137(57.8% Ostapenko)
Sources: Market consensus (average across books). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Jelena Ostapenko
1739
Tatjana Maria
1494
Overall rating
Jelena Ostapenko
1848
Tatjana Maria
1738
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Jelena Ostapenko
Tatjana Maria
1st serve in
56%
56.8%
1st serve points won
64.9%
65.3%
2nd serve points won
43.3%
46.3%
Form
Jelena Ostapenko
7–3
Tatjana Maria
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Jelena Ostapenko vs Tatjana Maria?
Maiden gives Jelena Ostapenko a 59% chance to beat Tatjana Maria in the US Open first round on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Jelena Ostapenko pick?
59% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 59%, picks in that range have won 63% of the time (120 so far). See the track record page for the full table.