A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jelena Ostapenko goes up against Tatjana Maria in the US Open first round. Jelena Ostapenko limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Tatjana Maria is 7-3 across recent matches.

Jelena Ostapenko is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Ostapenko around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ostapenko is exactly that — a lean.