A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jesper De Jong goes up against Stan Wawrinka in the French Open first round. Stan Wawrinka is 4-6 across recent matches. Jesper De Jong has dropped 5 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.

Jesper De Jong leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Jong — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Wawrinka.