A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jessica Pegula goes up against Kamilla Rakhimova in the Toronto round of 32. Jessica Pegula comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova is 4-6 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. Rakhimova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.