Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Jessica Pegula against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Jessica Pegula has won 8 of the last 10. Leylah Fernandez is 5-5 across recent matches.

Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 75%. If Pegula plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.