Wednesday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Jessica Pegula against Sorana Cirstea on hard. Jessica Pegula is 7-3 across recent matches. Sorana Cirstea has won 6 of the last 10.

Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 65%. Pegula should have enough here, though Cirstea has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.