Jiri Lehecka and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Jiri Lehecka is 6-4 across recent matches. Pablo Carreno Busta comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Lehecka has been winning 72.7% of first-serve points to Busta's 68.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lehecka.