Joao Fonseca and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the round of 64 at Montreal on Wednesday. Joao Fonseca has won 6 of the last 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fonseca is exactly that — a lean.