Buenos Aires 3 · R16 · Clay · best of 3 · Sep 23, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · September 23, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
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Juan Pablo Varillas won 4-6 7-5 6-4
This one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Juan Pablo Varillas, who won 4-6 7-5 6-4.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Juan Pablo Varillas goes up against Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco in the Buenos Aires 3 round of 16. Juan Pablo Varillas is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco is 3-7 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Varillas has been winning 68.7% of first-serve points to Velasco's 64%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Varillas comes in off a compressed schedule; Velasco comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Varillas win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Juan Pablo Varillas
1665
Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
1452
Overall rating
Juan Pablo Varillas
1676
Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
1444
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
1st serve in
59.2%
65.1%
1st serve points won
68.7%
64%
2nd serve points won
49.8%
48.4%
Form
Juan Pablo Varillas
8–2
Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
3–7
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who won Juan Pablo Varillas vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco at Buenos Aires 3?
Juan Pablo Varillas won 4-6 7-5 6-4.
Was the Juan Pablo Varillas vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco prediction correct?
This one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Juan Pablo Varillas, who won 4-6 7-5 6-4.