Monday's US Open first round pits Julia Grabher against Sorana Cirstea on hard. Sorana Cirstea has won 5 of the last 10. Julia Grabher is 5-5 across recent matches.

Sorana Cirstea simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Cirstea — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.