Friday's Rome quarterfinal pits Julia Riera against Nuria Brancaccio on clay. Julia Riera is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Nuria Brancaccio is 3-7 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Riera's 62.4% behind the first serve (against 55.2% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Riera comes in off a compressed schedule; Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Riera is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Julia Riera | Nuria Brancaccio |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 57% | 74.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 62.4% | 55.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.4% | 43.1% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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