Juncheng Shang and Kei Nishikori meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Kei Nishikori is 5-5 across recent matches. Juncheng Shang limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

Kei Nishikori has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Juncheng Shang. On hard specifically it reads 2-1 Nishikori — worth more than the overall number this week.

Kei Nishikori is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Nishikori around 53%. Little separates them; Nishikori gets the nod on the finest of margins.