Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Juncheng Shang against Sebastian Baez on hard. Sebastian Baez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Juncheng Shang is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Sebastian Baez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Baez fractionally more likely to land the big points.