A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Kamil Majchrzak goes up against Mattia Bellucci in the Hangzhou round of 32. Kamil Majchrzak has won 3 of the last 10. Mattia Bellucci has won 4 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Majchrzak is exactly that — a lean.