Monday's US Open round of 16 pits Karen Khachanov against Learner Tien on hard. Learner Tien has won 7 of the last 10. Karen Khachanov has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.

Learner Tien is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tien around 61%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tien.