Friday's Beijing round of 64 pits Karolina Muchova against Katie Boulter on hard. Karolina Muchova has won 8 of the last 10. Katie Boulter comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 80%. If Muchova plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.