Tuesday's Beijing round of 16 pits Karolina Muchova against Naomi Osaka on hard. Karolina Muchova is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Naomi Osaka has won 8 of the last 10.
Naomi Osaka has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 against Karolina Muchova. On hard specifically it reads 4-1 Osaka — worth more than the overall number this week.
Karolina Muchova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Muchova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 62.3% | 58.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 64.8% | 71.3% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.3% | 46.4% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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