Tuesday's Wimbledon quarterfinal pits Karolina Muchova against Naomi Osaka on grass. Naomi Osaka has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Karolina Muchova has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.
The ledger favors Naomi Osaka, 4-2 across their 6 meetings with Karolina Muchova.
The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Muchova's 64.4%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Osaka fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 62.4% | 58.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 64.4% | 71.1% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.1% | 46.4% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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