A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Karolina Muchova goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Beijing quarterfinal. Karolina Muchova is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Nikola Bartunkova has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 68%. The edge belongs to Muchova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.