Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Kasidit Samrej against Rio Noguchi on hard. Rio Noguchi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kasidit Samrej has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Noguchi — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.