A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Kasidit Samrej goes up against Yuta Shimizu in the Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) round of 16. Kasidit Samrej has won 5 of the last 10. Yuta Shimizu is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Samrej has been winning 71% of first-serve points to Shimizu's 67.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Samrej comes in off a compressed schedule; Shimizu comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Samrej fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Kasidit Samrej | Yuta Shimizu |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 60.3% | 61.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 71% | 67.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.6% | 48.8% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.