A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Katie Boulter goes up against Linda Noskova in the Cincinnati round of 64. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Katie Boulter is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (4 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Boulter needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.