Kei Nishikori and Rafael Jodar meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Thursday. Rafael Jodar is 8-2 across recent matches. Kei Nishikori has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jodar fractionally more likely to land the big points.