Saturday's Winnipeg semifinal pits Liam Draxl against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Liam Draxl comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Shintaro Mochizuki has won 7 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Liam Draxl is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Draxl around 71%. Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule; Mochizuki comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Draxl — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.