Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Liudmila Samsonova against Madison Keys on hard. Madison Keys comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Liudmila Samsonova has won 4 of the last 10.
Madison Keys has had the better of this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 against Liudmila Samsonova. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Keys — worth more than the overall number this week.
Madison Keys simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Keys.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Liudmila Samsonova | Madison Keys |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 56% | 64.4% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.3% | 65.6% |
| 2nd serve points won | 47.2% | 44.8% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.