Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Lorenzo Musetti against Matteo Arnaldi on hard. Lorenzo Musetti has won 6 of the last 10. Matteo Arnaldi has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Lorenzo Musetti, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Matteo Arnaldi. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Musetti — worth more than the overall number this week.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 69%. Musetti should have enough here, though Arnaldi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 63.7% | 58.4% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.6% | 70% |
| 2nd serve points won | 51.7% | 50.2% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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