Monday's Villena round of 32 pits Luca Nardi against Pablo Llamas Ruiz on clay. Pablo Llamas Ruiz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Luca Nardi limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ruiz is exactly that — a lean.