Thursday's Braga round of 16 pits Lukas Neumayer against Olle Wallin on clay. Lukas Neumayer has won 5 of the last 10. Olle Wallin is 4-6 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule; Wallin comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Neumayer.