Thursday's Antofagasta round of 16 pits M. Tobon against Tomas Barrios Vera on clay. Tomas Barrios Vera is 4-6 across recent matches. M. Tobon comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Tobon comes in off a compressed schedule; Vera comes in off a compressed schedule. If Vera plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.