Madison Keys and Marta Kostyuk meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Thursday. Marta Kostyuk has won 8 of the last 10. Madison Keys comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kostyuk is exactly that — a lean.