Saturday's Newport semifinal pits Mananchaya Sawangkaew against Tatjana Maria on grass. Tatjana Maria brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Mananchaya Sawangkaew brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Sawangkaew comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maria is exactly that — a lean.