Manuel La Serna Juan and Nick Hardt meet in the round of 32 at Guayaquil on Tuesday. Manuel La Serna Juan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Nick Hardt limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Juan — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.