A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Marco Cecchinato goes up against Matej Dodig in the Lisbon round of 16. Matej Dodig has won 9 of the last 10. Marco Cecchinato comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Dodig has been winning 70.4% of first-serve points to Cecchinato's 67.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Dodig.