A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Marcos Giron goes up against Sebastian Baez in the Shanghai first round. Sebastian Baez limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Marcos Giron limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Sebastian Baez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Baez is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 62.9% | 72.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 70.5% | 64.5% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.4% | 51.5% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.