A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Marcos Giron goes up against Sebastian Baez in the Shanghai first round. Sebastian Baez limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Marcos Giron limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

Sebastian Baez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Baez is exactly that — a lean.