Maria Sakkari and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 32 at Strasbourg on Sunday. Maria Sakkari is 5-5 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.

Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Stearns — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Sakkari has been winning 64.4% of first-serve points to Stearns's 60.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sakkari is exactly that — a lean.