Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Mariano Navone against Raphael Collignon on hard. Raphael Collignon has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Mariano Navone is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Collignon has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Collignon — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Mariano Navone | Raphael Collignon |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 68.5% | 63.3% |
| 1st serve points won | 62.4% | 72.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 50% | 46.1% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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