A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Marin Cilic goes up against Yosuke Watanuki in the Jinan round of 16. Marin Cilic is 4-6 across recent matches. Yosuke Watanuki limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Watanuki comes in off a compressed schedule. Cilic should have enough here, though Watanuki has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.