Thursday's Cassis round of 16 pits Mark Lajal against Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg on hard. Mark Lajal is 7-3 across recent matches. Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Lajal — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.