Monday's Como round of 32 pits Matej Dodig against Mili Poljicak on clay. Matej Dodig is 6-4 across recent matches. Mili Poljicak has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dodig is exactly that — a lean.