Tuesday's Umag round of 32 pits Matej Dodig against Pablo Carreno Busta on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Matej Dodig has won 7 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Busta is exactly that — a lean.