Tuesday's Olbia round of 32 pits Mathys Erhard against Valentin Royer on hard. Valentin Royer is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Mathys Erhard is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Royer.