Thursday's Cali round of 16 pits Matias Soto against Valerio Aboian on clay. Matias Soto is 4-6 across recent matches. Valerio Aboian is 4-6 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Soto has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Aboian's 64.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Aboian comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Soto is exactly that — a lean.