Matteo Arnaldi won 2-6 6-4 6-4
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 50% on Rei Sakamoto; Matteo Arnaldi won 2-6 6-4 6-4.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Matteo Arnaldi goes up against Rei Sakamoto in the Tokyo round of 32. Rei Sakamoto has won 5 of the last 10. Matteo Arnaldi is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Sakamoto has been winning 73.7% of first-serve points to Arnaldi's 70.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sakamoto is exactly that — a lean.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 58.5% | 62.4% |
| 1st serve points won | 70.1% | 73.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 50% | 49.7% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.