Tuesday's US Open first round pits Mattia Bellucci against Zsombor Piros on hard. Mattia Bellucci comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Zsombor Piros has won 8 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Bellucci has been winning 71.3% of first-serve points to Piros's 65.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bellucci is exactly that — a lean.