Beijing · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 30, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · Cancelled
Mayar Sherif vs Polina Kudermetova — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 30, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Mayar Sherif against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Polina Kudermetova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Mayar Sherif is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (8 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Kudermetova has been winning 64.8% of first-serve points to Sherif's 58.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kudermetova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-126(55.7% Kudermetova)
Market-187(65.1% Kudermetova)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Mayar Sherif
1348
Polina Kudermetova
1678
Overall rating
Mayar Sherif
1755
Polina Kudermetova
1699
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Mayar Sherif
Polina Kudermetova
1st serve in
74.2%
56.6%
1st serve points won
58.6%
64.8%
2nd serve points won
44.6%
43.2%
Form
Mayar Sherif
8–2
Polina Kudermetova
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Mayar Sherif vs Polina Kudermetova?
Maiden gives Polina Kudermetova a 56% chance to beat Mayar Sherif in the Beijing first round on September 30, 2026.
How confident is the Polina Kudermetova pick?
56% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 56%, picks in that range have won 63% of the time (172 so far). See the track record page for the full table.