Monday's Genova round of 32 pits Mili Poljicak against Stefanos Sakellaridis on clay. Stefanos Sakellaridis is 6-4 across recent matches. Mili Poljicak is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sakellaridis fractionally more likely to land the big points.