A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Miomir Kecmanovic goes up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Chengdu round of 32. Miomir Kecmanovic is 4-6 across recent matches. Nikoloz Basilashvili comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kecmanovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.