Sao Paulo · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Nadia Podoroska vs. Paula Badosa — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 19, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Nadia Podoroska and Paula Badosa meet in the semifinal at Sao Paulo on Saturday. Paula Badosa brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Nadia Podoroska is 4-6 across recent matches.
Paula Badosa simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Badosa plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-266(72.6% Badosa)
Market-380(79.2% Badosa)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Nadia Podoroska
1654
Paula Badosa
1796
Overall rating
Nadia Podoroska
1649
Paula Badosa
1883
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Nadia Podoroska
Paula Badosa
1st serve in
63.1%
60.5%
1st serve points won
62.2%
65%
2nd serve points won
43.9%
45.2%
Form
Nadia Podoroska
4–6
Paula Badosa
8–2
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Nadia Podoroska vs Paula Badosa?
Maiden gives Paula Badosa a 73% chance to beat Nadia Podoroska in the Sao Paulo semifinal on September 19, 2026.
How confident is the Paula Badosa pick?
73% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 73%, picks in that range have won 73% of the time (73 so far). See the track record page for the full table.