US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 31, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Nadia Podoroska vs. Simona Waltert — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Nadia Podoroska and Simona Waltert meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Nadia Podoroska is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Simona Waltert has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Podoroska fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-103(50.8% Podoroska)
Market+174(36.5% Podoroska)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Nadia Podoroska
1615
Simona Waltert
1556
Overall rating
Nadia Podoroska
1607
Simona Waltert
1678
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Nadia Podoroska
Simona Waltert
1st serve in
63.3%
63.9%
1st serve points won
62.1%
60.3%
2nd serve points won
43.6%
44%
Form
Nadia Podoroska
3–7
Simona Waltert
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Nadia Podoroska vs Simona Waltert?
Maiden gives Nadia Podoroska a 51% chance to beat Simona Waltert in the US Open first round on August 31, 2026.
How confident is the Nadia Podoroska pick?
51% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 51%, picks in that range have won 60% of the time (113 so far). See the track record page for the full table.