A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Nicolas Mejia goes up against Ugo Blanchet in the St. Tropez round of 32. Ugo Blanchet has won 3 of the last 10. Nicolas Mejia limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Blanchet has been winning 72.2% of first-serve points to Mejia's 69.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Blanchet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Nicolas Mejia | Ugo Blanchet |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.4% | 53.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.1% | 72.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.4% | 51.8% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.