Tuesday's Brussels round of 32 pits Nishesh Basavareddy against Raphael Collignon on hard. Raphael Collignon has dropped 6 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Nishesh Basavareddy is 4-6 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Collignon — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.